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Poland Macro Weekly: 2023 in preview
Central banks, including the NBP, face a ‘tragic’ choice in which there are no good solutions. They can either stabilize the economy at the price of a slower decline in inflation, or continue aggressive fight with inflation, accepting the risk of a deep economic downturn.
Macro Focus: Gdzie jest potencjał polskiego rynku pracy?
Ostatnie 20 lat przyniosło drastyczną redukcję bezrobocia w Polsce, z ponad 16% przed unijną akcesją w 2004 do poniżej 3% w trakcie 2022. Nigdzie w UE spadek bezrobocia, a tym samym zacieśnienie warunków na rynku pracy nie było tak znaczące. W efekcie, coraz częściej mówi się o napięciach na polskim rynku pracy, wynikających z niedoboru pracowników oraz niedopasowania popytu na pracę do podaży.
Poland Macro Weekly: Housing market: The worst is over
Continued decline in transaction volume and slower growth (y/y) of housing prices were main trends in 3q22. With housing starts dropping sharply we should see restored market equilibrium in approximately 2-years’ time.
Poland Macro Weekly: All quiet on the monetary policy front
The Monetary Policy Council left NBP interest rates unchanged for the third month in a row (the reference rate at 6.75%). The incoming data confirm it is an optimal choice.
Poland Macro Weekly: Disinflation ahead
CPI inflation in November surprisingly dropped to 17.4% y/y from 17.9% y/y in October. Core inflation momentum is weakening. The structure of GDP growth is becoming less and less inflationary, and declining consumption will help to push inflation down.
Poland Macro Weekly: Corporate profits shrink
Intensified cost pressure and growing barriers on the demand side led to a deterioration of corporate profits in 3q22. Corporate profits share in national income most likely held up well another quarter in a row. Inventories, after a period of massive build-up, crossed a tipping point and started to exert pressure on corporate liquidity.