![PKOBP logo](/static/front/infosite/img/logo/logo-centrum-analiz.png)
Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: Nothing to see here
Our observations from Poland Macro Weekly “Less reliant on Germany?” (May 12th 2022) are still valid. Although trade and industrial ties between Poland and Germany loosened in 2022, Polish-German industrial tandem is still in the game.
Poland Macro Weekly: Growth less inflation-prone
The preliminary full-year data implies that the GDP slowdown in 4q22 wasn’t as severe as we have expected, although consumer demand recession has been confirmed. GDP growth structure evolves towards a less inflationary one.
Poland Macro Weekly: GDP growth in 4q22 heading south
Output and retail sales figures for December were a mixed bag and confirmed our estimate that GDP growth in 4q22 was 0.9% y/y (vs 3.6% y/y in 3q22), as private consumption remained subdued, fixed investments were at most moderate while exports revived.
Poland Macro Weekly: This time is different, again
Labour shortages, unfilled vacancies, aging and migrations will make a downturn on the domestic labour market in 2023 look different than it was in the previous economic slowdown periods.
Poland Macro Outlook 2023: It’s just a temporary power outage
Global energy crisis, the highest level of interest rates for many years, fear of world war and the biggest geopolitical tensions since 1989, massive immigration, onset of a 3-year long election period - all these factors make forecasting for Poland in 2023 extremely difficult. The environment won’t be supportive for the Polish economy, which might result in the weakest GDP growth ever. Poland’s fundamentals, however, remain solid which means that 2023 is just a temporary power outage.