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Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: Turning point?
New NBP projection shows a significant deterioration in GDP growth outlook for 2023-2024, which implies CPI inflation returns to the target range in 2024, following double-digit consumer prices growth in 2022-2023.
Puls Konsumenta: Co robimy z oszczędnościami? Coraz chętniej spłacamy kredyty
Od połowy 2020 silnie rośnie skala spłat kredytów mieszkaniowych. Istotnym czynnikiem jest rosnąca różnica między oprocentowaniem kredytów i depozytów. Gospodarstwa domowe optymalizują strukturę swoich aktywów i pasywów, zamieniając nisko dochodowe depozyty i gotówkę na zmniejszenie obciążeń związanych z obsługą kredytów.
Poland Macro Weekly: Inflation vs recession dillema
Facing elevated inflation and most likely incoming recession, the Monetary Policy Council, in line with our expectations, raised interest rates “only” by 50 bp. A cautious approach adopted by the MPC, in our opinion, increases the probability that the tightening cycle might be concluded in September by delivering one more hike by 50 bp.
Poland Macro Weekly: NBP rate hikes coming to an end
As inflation is nearing a peak and the economic growth outlook is getting grimmer (to be confirmed in fresh NBP projection), the MPC is likely to end the tightening cycle soon. We assume two more rate hikes of 50bps each in July and September, taking the the NBP reference rate to 7.00%.
W stagflacyjnym imadle
Globalna gospodarka utknęła w uścisku stagflacyjnych sił, a główne banki centralne w końcu skupiły się na zwalczaniu inflacji, nawet kosztem recesji
Poland Macro Weekly: Dry loan tap has frozen the market
The large drop in demand for mortgages is a textbook reaction of the market to a series of interest rate hikes. Weaker lending activity results in in a decline in sales of dwellings. The period of dynamic price increases in the housing market is coming to an end and we think a correction is likely in the coming year. At the same time, a strong increase in construction costs, with no possibility of further price increases, will limit the new supply.