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Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: Inflation sparked investments?
CPI inflation in August unexpectedly rose to 16.1% y/y from 15.6% y/y. All main categories except for fuels contributed for the rise in inflation.
Poland Macro Weekly: Costs jump, deals slow
The sky-high growth rate of revenues of large companies (with 50+ employees) in 2q22 wasn’t enough to beat the growth rate of corporate costs, but still profits were record high another quarter in a row. Inventory build-up most likely sparked an investment demand on own storage space, but also its structure suggests that there could be a problem with demand looming on the horizon.
Poland Macro Weekly: It’s payback time
In 2q22 GDP grew by 5.3% y/y, but on quarterly basis it dropped by 2.3% (seas.adj.), which was the third largest drop since 1995. The high pace of inventories build-up, which has started in 2q21, most likely abruptly slowed in 2q22 marking the beginning of the normalization period. As we have already warned in early June, the high GDP growth in early 2022 was partly ‘borrowed’ from the future what means it’s payback time now.
Poland Macro Weekly: Inflation seems to be losing steam
CPI inflation in July rose to 15.6% y/y but in m/m terms was the weakest since August 2021. Inflationary trends seem to be losing steam and MPC seems to be losing arguments in favour of further hikes.
Poland Macro Weekly: Unemployment at the bottom and inflation plateau
Unemployment rate in June was the lowest on record (4.9%) and, as the domestic labour supply is set to shrink, will stay low for longer.