Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: Approaching a single-digit inflation
We took a closer look at flagship election promises of the main political groupings, which we find rather generous and focused around social transfers. Tax cuts are also in the game for most of the parties.
Poland Macro Weekly: It can only get better
GDP in 2q23 fell by 0.5% y/y and we expect it to be the low point of this economic downturn.
Poland Macro Weekly: Let the cycle begin!
The Polish MPC surprised with a large 75bps interest rate cut. In our view NBP rate cuts will be continued, but the overall size of rates reduction will be smaller than the market currently prices in.
Poland Macro Weekly: Towards the interest rate cut in September
CPI inflation in August remained double-digit – it declined to 10.1% y/y from 10.8% y/y in July. Our estimates suggest a noticeable fall in core inflation and weakening of its momentum, which may convince the MPC to start rate cuts in September.
Poland Macro Weekly: Slow start of 3q23
Monthly data show that the start of 3q23 was slightly disappointing, however, posing no threat to expected economic rebound.
Poland Macro Weekly: Employees still call the shots
Sensitivity of labour market to economic conditions has weakened in recent years, in particular in 2q21-3q22. Limited labour supply was a constraint to post-pandemic employment recovery, while at the same time remains workers’ safety buffer during the downturn. We see, however, that in 4q22-2q23 demand conditions again seemed to have a higher impact on employment.