Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 3Q 2024
Forecasts for 3Q 2024 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | 2Q 2024 | q/q | 3Q 2023 | y/y |
Net interest income | 5 648 | 5 659 | 5 737 | 5 395 | 5 542 | 2.1% | 4 662 | 21.4% |
Net fee and commission income | 1 289 | 1 293 | 1 305 | 1 265 | 1 280 | 1.0% | 1 175 | 10.0% |
Total Revenues | 7 274 | 7 288 | 7 460 | 6 925 | 6 748 | 8.0% | 6 167 | 18.2% |
Operating expenses | 2 036 | 2 048 | 2 085 | 1 948 | 1 962 | 4.4% | 1 790 | 14.4% |
Net provisions (ex. CHF) | 344 | 347 | 405 | 224 | 447 | -22.3% | 286 | 21.6% |
FX mortgage legal risk provisions | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 982 | 1.2% | 0 | - |
Pre - tax profit | 3 603 | 3 591 | 3 812 | 3 346 | 3 054 | 17.6% | 3 836 | -6.4% |
Income tax | 1 130 | 1 186 | 1 250 | 909 | 703 | 68.7% | 1 057 | 12.2% |
Net profit | 2 454 | 2 446 | 2 675 | 2 270 | 2 351 | 4.0% | 2 780 | -12.0% |
PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 31.10.2024, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous, Citi Securities, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Morgan Stanley, Erste Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Raiffeisen CB, Santander Securities, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Company.
Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 8 | 80.00% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 1 | 10.00% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 1 | 10.00% |
| Total | 10 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 18.07.2024 to 8.11.2024
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 73.7 PLN
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2024
| Forecasts for year 2024 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 22 027 | 22 131 | 22 680 | 21 229 |
| Net fee and commission income | 5 185 | 5 138 | 5 875 | 4 994 |
| Total income items | 27 974 | 27 982 | 28 735 | 26 968 |
| Administrative expenses | 8 441 | 8 416 | 8 794 | 8 155 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 493 | 1 508 | 1 766 | 1 123 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 4 258 | 4 400 | 5 250 | 2 338 |
| Profit before income tax | 12 517 | 12 452 | 14 323 | 11 711 |
| Net profit | 9 363 | 9 014 | 12 710 | 7 917 |
Based on 18 forecasts issued in the period: from 18.07.2024 to 8.11.2024
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2025
| Forecasts for year 2025 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 21 588 | 21 631 | 23 515 | 19 175 |
| Net fee and commission income | 5 384 | 5 369 | 6 013 | 4 956 |
| Total income items | 28 103 | 27 799 | 30 040 | 25 679 |
| Administrative expenses | 9 292 | 9 178 | 10 056 | 8 899 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 875 | 1 864 | 2 334 | 1 417 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 2 156 | 2 000 | 4 750 | 49 |
| Profit before income tax | 13 367 | 13 154 | 16 422 | 11 546 |
| Net profit | 10 136 | 10 302 | 12 661 | 7 808 |
Based on 18 forecasts issued in the period: from 18.07.2024 to 8.11.2024
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | -2.0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 3.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | -3.4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | -0.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Investments | % y/y | -7.6 | 1.6 | 12.6 | 6.2 | -3.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 9.7 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -6.9 | -1.8 | -3.4 | -5.3 | -5.6 | -5.4 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 54.5 | 50.8 | 48.7 | 45.7 | 57.2 | 53.6 | 49.2 | 49.6 | 53.9 | 58.2 |
| CPI inflation | % | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 4.75 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.82 | 4.67 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.69 | 4.35 | 4.24 | 4.26 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 4.18 | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.79 | 3.73 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 3.94 | 3.75 | 3.67 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 8.9 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 9.1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 7.6 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 8.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 21.0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 5.6 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 3.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 6.3 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.6 | -4.0 | -2.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 7.0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 7.7 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 3.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (07.11.2024)
Marta Czajkowska-Bałdyga | Michał Fidelus | Samuel Goodacre JP Morgan Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7134 6720 Samuel.Goodacre@jpmorgan.com |
Cihan Saraoglu | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com |
| Michał Konarski Dom Maklerski mBanku SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl | Łukasz Jańczak Erste Securities Polska SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 257 57 54 Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@millenniumdm.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Nida Iqbal Siddiqi Morgan Stanley United Arab Emirates- Dubai tel. +71 4 709 7103 Nida.Iqbal.Siddiqi@morganstanley.com |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego SA (Citigroup) Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | David Taranto |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601 Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com | Michał Sobolewski Dom Maklerski BOŚ SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Mikhail Butkov Goldman Sachs United Arab Emirates - Dubai tel. +971 437 63 564 mikhail.butkov@gs.com |
|