What else caught our eye:
- Labour market data showed a slower y/y downfall of employment and skyrocketing wages (above expectations), rising at the highest pace since 2012, mostly due to earlier bonus payments and low statistical base.
- The central budget recorded a deficit of PLN 3.4bn after March (vs. a surplus of PLN 0.9bn after February) with a very strong tax collection, as well as surprisingly low transfers to the Social Security Fund.
- Consumer sentiment slightly improved in April, but it is still weaker than before the pandemic and weaker than during last summer.
- Business sentiment improved in April as well, with exceptions in retail trade, hospitality and IT sector. With gradual removal of antipandemic restrictions starting next Monday, we expect the sentiment to improve in May/June.
- S&P chief analyst for Poland said that the credit risk assessment of the country is balanced, with a stable outlook. In his view, when the pandemic is over, there might be a pressure to upgrade the rating as long as the ongoing positive macroeconomic trends continue.
- Money (m3) supply growth rate went down in March (14.4% y/y, in line with our forecast) amid subdued lending (total loans falling by 1.7% y/y, FX adj.) and a flush of liquidity (deposits rising by 12.5% y/y, FX adj.)
The week ahead:
- Unemployment rate has likely started moving south in March, decreasing to 6.4% from 6.5% in February, mostly due to seasonal factors.
- CPI (flash print) will likely continue steep rise, to 3.7-3.8% in April from 3.2% in March, mostly on low base effect in fuel prices. On the opposite side, core inflation will start to fall on high base from the previous year.
- We expect no change to Poland’s ratingby Moody’s on Friday. In our opinion Moody’s is the top candidate to upgrade the country’s rating after the pandemic (assuming continuation of the pre-pandemic trends).