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TOP MACRO THEME(S):

  • So far so good: Data from major sectors of the economy indicate that in August the activity was growing for the second month in a row, after a sharp correction in 2q22, which resulted in a GDP decline by 2.1% q/q.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

  • M3 money supply growth accelerated to 7.4% y/y in August from 6.2% y/y in July. Among narrow measures of money, trends from the previous month continued: a decline in M1 money supply deepened both in nominal (-3.7% y/y) and real terms (to -18.7% y/y), while nominal M2 money supply growth accelerated slightly. Lending to households continued to decelerate, while corporate lending has notably accelerated (primarily revolving loans, but also investment loans to a lesser extent).
  • According to the final results of the 2021 Census, Poland's population in 2021 was 38.036m, down by 1.2% (0.475m) in the 2011 Census. According to the new data, 15.228m dwellings were located in Poland, up by 12.8% from the 2011 Census.
  • The government is preparing a draft aid bill for energy-intensive industries. The value of the program would be over PLN 5bn in 2022, PLN 8.2bn in 2023 and PLN 4.1bn in 2024. The support is to be allocated to companies whose business continuity is at risk, and is to serve primarily to ensure liquidity. The aid bill will cover, according to our estimates, about 2% of manufacturing entities, which generate app. 17% of the sector's revenue and 21% of its net profit (6% and 8%, respectively, among all enterprises with more than 9 employees). The government is also working on protective measures for households – natural gas consumers – similar as the plan for electricity prices presented last week. It is considered to either limit the scale of tariff increases or to freeze tariffs up to a certain level of consumption.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

  • Flash CPI inflation for September likely rose in July, mainly on food and energy prices.
  • CEE central banks’ meetings are approaching – we assume that CNB will maintain interest rates (7%) while MNB will hike again (100bps to 12.75%).

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

  • 4.8% – registered unemployment rate in August: fresh all-time low.
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