TOP MACRO THEME(S):
- How shock-resilient is the Polish economy?: We have analyzed Poland's position in a number of areas viewed as measures of market stability. The country’s fundamentals look relatively solid.
WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:
- The registered unemployment rate in September stood at 5.1% (vs. 5.2% in August). The agricultural census of 2020 resulted in an upward revision of the unemployment rate for the last 2 years, by app. 0.5pp. The estimated number of people working in agriculture was cut by half, starting from the end of 2020, to approx. 1 million. The data, however, most likely does not include Ukrainians working in this sector. The changes have not effected the number of unemployed, nor did they affect an assessment of the labour market dynamics. The unemployment rate has been in a strong downward trend since 2021, reflecting rapid GDP growth.
- New factory orders in September jumped 44.1% y/y, with export orders up 43.8% y/y. The acceleration vs. 31.5% in Aug. is likely a result of smoother supply chains in the automotive industry and high demand on investment goods (speed-up in energy efficiency improvement). This could mitigate the effects of general economic downturn on the sector, at least for some time.
- M3 money supply in September increased by 7.7% y/y. Among narrower money measures the negative trends continued: decline in M1 money supply deepened both in nominal (-5.6% y/y vs. -3.8% y/y in August) and in real terms (to -21.9% y/y vs. -18.7% y/y in August). The data indicate that the upcoming slowdown in economic activity will mainly affect the consumer sector: outstanding volume of total housing loans in September fell in y/y terms for the first time on record, while the y/y growth rate of personal term deposits was the highest ever.
THE WEEK AHEAD:
- CPI inflation in October has likely accelerated further on higher food prices and more expensive fuel and energy.
- Manufacturing PMI for October has probably remained under negative pressure from the energy crisis and worse business climate abroad.
- Today Moody’s may update Polish rating (now: A2 stable).
NUMBER OF THE WEEK:
- 118bps – The decline of intraday10Y yield since the previous week’s high.