TOP MACRO THEME(S):
- January data turned out bittersweet as they showed a y/y decline in retail sales for the first time in almost two years. Industrial production most likely passed the peak of the cycle, while construction output was supported by relatively warm winter and positive calendar effects. Some signs of cool-down came from data on employment in the enterprise sector.
- One year after the outbreak of war in Ukraine we take a look back at its consequences for the Polish economy.
WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:
- Money (M3) supply growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y from 5.4% y/y in December, accompanied by a significant fall in cash in circulation (though typical for the beginning of the year) and a solid growth in deposits. Meanwhile, decline in households lending eased somewhat.
- Unemployment rate stabilised at 2.9% in 4q22 according to LFS data. Employment rate set a new historic maximum, while activity rate reached 58.2%, coming back to the record level achieved in 3q21. Registered unemployment rate in January increased to 5.5% from 5.2% in December, slightly more than the seasonal pattern would suggest.
- Procurement prices of average agricultural products declined by 6.7% m/m, for the first time since July 2021. Yearly growth remains high at 34.5%, but its quick deceleration will translate into disinflation in the CPI.
THE WEEK AHEAD:
- Detailed estimate of GDP in 4q22 will most likely show a fall in consumption and a minor increase in investment, which could have already been concluded from the yearly figure. Preliminary estimate showed GDP growth slowing to 2.0% y/y, with big discrepancies between sa and nsa reading.
- PMI has likely inched up in February pointing that the worst of the industrial recession is probably behind us.
- As in the past, flash estimate of inflation in February is not going to be published. For the February figure we need to wait until mid-March.
NUMBER OF THE WEEK:
- 56,8% – employment rate in 4q22, which reached a new recod value.