What else caught our eye:
- Real retail sales growth in December slowed to 8.0% y/y from 12.1% y/y in November, which is a bit of a disappointment. The drag on overall result in December was by car sales (-8.5% y/y) as well as by furniture, RTV and household appliances (+1.5% y/y), which reflects supply constraints. Consumption demand remains strong, despite elevated inflation.
- Registered unemployment rate remained at 5.4% in December, which is untypically strong result against seasonal pattern (see ‘Chart of the week’).
- M3 money supply grew 8.9% y/y in December vs 10.1% y/y in November. The volume of current deposits and liabilities rose, as corporates preferred term deposits over sight ones. Loan growth (in FX adj. terms) was 4.8% y/y (vs. 3.8% in November and -0.8% in December 2020). Consumer loans fell for the third month in a row (the effect of rate hikes). Mortgages growth (m/m) decelerated to the weakest pace since February 2021.
The week ahead:
- Poland’s PMI manufacturing for January should indicate a rise, following a strong reading for the euro area, as supply constraints have been showing some welcome signs of easing recently.
- GDP in 2021 (tentative data) probably rose at least 5.5% as the economy has accelerated in last months of the year.
Number of the week:
- 57659 – the number of daily new covid cases today, a new record high, as the Omicron wave is paving its way through Poland.