What else caught our eye:
- CPI inflation for September has been revised up to 5.9% y/y (vs 5.8% in flash reading). Broad-based price pressure has been confirmed with core inflation heading north to 4.2-4.3% y/y on our estimates.
- CAB was in deficit for the fourth month in a row in August (EUR -1.8bn) with exports dampened by supply shortages (e.g. automotive suffering from semiconductors shortage) and imports boosted by rising energy prices.
12-month CA surplus declined to 0.9% of GDP, the lowest since Jan-20.
The week ahead:
- As the third week of a month brings its usual data deluge for Poland, it may be best to look first into the economic activity indicators for September (industrial and construction output as well as retail sales). The numbers will be the final gauge on the pace of GDP growth in 3q21 and a test how much bottlenecks on the supply side may hurt economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Please see our forecasts in the calendar.
- Labour market data for September (employment and wages in corporate sector) may help to evaluate whether a wage-price spiral is looming at a distant horizon or just around the corner. Consumer confidence indicator for October will show whether price hikes and virus resurgence news hit sentiment.
- Monetary statistics for September should show that M3 money supply growth likely stabilized and lending activity revives only moderately.