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Wszystkie
Kwartalnik Ekonomiczny: Dezinflacyjny piwot
Globalna gospodarka utknęła pomiędzy obawami o koniunkturę a inflację. Problemy banków w USA i Europie uwypukliły monetarny konflikt tragiczny, o którym pisaliśmy poprzednio. Pomimo zaskakującej odporności gospodarki i wciąż istotnych obaw o tempo powrotu inflacji do celu, cykl podwyżek stóp Fed dobiega końca.
Poland Macro Weekly: CPI keeps falling down
CPI inflation dropped to 14.7% y/y in April, driven by high base effect and normalization of food and energy prices. Core inflation also declined, although its momentum remains strong.
Poland Macro Weekly: Fiscal glass: half full or half empty?
A prolonged fiscal expansion means that Poland’s debt sustainability position deteriorated compared to EU peers. The deterioration of Poland’s mid-term debt sustainability position is based on potential output estimate, which – in our view – is at least debatable. Nevertheless, we agree with the EC’s assessment, that the tightening of financial conditions (which in Poland is one of the most pronounced in the EU) will require some fiscal tightening next year.
Poland Macro Weekly: Polish MPC still in a pause mode
CPI inflation in March dropped to 16.1% y/y from 18.4% y/y in February. The decline derived from statistical base effect and normalization of energy and fuel prices.
Poland Macro Weekly: Let the disinflation begin
CPI inflation in March declined to 16.2% y/y from 18.4% y/y in February, above expectations. Although inflation embarked on a downward journey, rising core measure brings to mind that its return to inflation target will be a long and bumpy road.
Poland Macro Weekly: Corporate profits dwindle, margins narrow
“Costs jump, deals slow” story heralded by us in late Aug22 keeps materializing. Indeed, lack of ability to slash input costs significantly, combined with faltering demand, resulted in corporate margins reduction for the second quarter in a row. Energy shock has induced a new wave of investment demand – nominal value of energy sector projects kicked-off in 4q22 almost doubled, indicating that investments and GDP growth will benefit from them next year.