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Wszystkie
Czy stać nas na tarczę?
1 lutego weszła w życie większość rozwiązań z „tarczy antyinflacyjnej”, co wg naszych szacunków obniży inflację CPI o 2-3pp. Nie oznacza to jednak konieczności drastycznej rewizji założeń dotyczących wyniku fiskalnego w 2022. Dlaczego? Wyjaśniamy.
GDP growth surged in 4q21 to end 2021 on a high note
GDP growth at least 6.5% in 4q21 (p.2): Given stronger-than-expected monthly economic activity indicators for November-December, the balance of risks to our estimate of GDP growth in 4q21 (6.5%-7.0% y/y vs 5.3% y/y in 3q21) is becoming skewed to the upside (and is not above consensus anymore). This also implies that full-year GDP growth in 2021 was probably higher than our estimate so far at 5.5%. There will be a large carry over effect, supporting GDP growth forecasts for 2022 (PKO: 4.1% vs consensus: 4.7%).
Successful 2021 behind us, challenging 2022 ahead
Successful 2021 behind us, challenging 2022 ahead, our take on generous payouts for Christmas and industry finishing 2021 on a high note.
Makro Flash: Moc w przetwórstwie
It’s not the last word on the matter
The MPC raised NBP rates by 50bps (the reference rate to 1.75%, the highest since March 2015). The post-meeting statement suggests that market valuations indicating a rise in the reference rate above 3% in the next 12 months might be too aggressive. On the other hand, comments from governor Glapinski at presser on Thursday suggest that the MPC definitely has not said the last word yet.
Poland Macro Weekly: It’s getting tricky
It’s getting tricky: lower inflation, higher rates, stronger PLN. The government announced an anti-inflation package. Temporary tax cuts will lower the expected inflation peak by app. 1.5pp. Despite the package, the NBP will stay in the tightening mode. Higher rates, strong activity results and verbal interventions from both the NBP and the government should support the PLN.